Mass Methane Release Accelerating

[Tamohara dasa ADMIN.]

Wednesday, October 30, 2013 16:52

Mass methane release appears to be picking up speed by the day in the Arctic as well as countless other locations around the globe.

Dane Wigington
geoengineeringwatch.org

The atmospheric methane graphic below, released yesterday, should be a stark wake up call for any that understand the ramifications.

While CNN shows us 20 minutes at a time of the JonBenét Ramsey murder saga from seventeen years ago, which all the networks have done in recent days, globally game changing events are unfolding at blinding speed with not so much as a word from the media.

The Geoengineers are going for broke in their ever more destructive attempt to hide converging climate catastrophes while making the entire situation exponentially worse in the process. Geoengineering is ripping apart the web of life on our planet. The highly toxic fallout from the spraying is literally poisoning all that lives.

“Epic” methane release in the Laptev Sea and many other areas are cases in point. Even the recent quake off the coast of Fukushima appears to have triggered significant methane release in that region. Main stream media is doing their part to obscure such dire truths from the public till the last possible moment. Unfortunately, a huge percentage of the population is all to willing to ram their heads into the sand and gulp down whatever the corporate media machine feeds them.

In the meantime, skies around the globe are being covered with the toxic brew being spewed out by the geoengineering spray jets. Blocking out the sun is, after all, the expressed goal of the geoengineers and their many patents. Though all the spraying is indeed blotting out the sun and creating a temporary toxic cooling effect in some places, it is also creating unprecedented droughts in regions like the US west, Australia, Africa, etc, and at times catastrophic flooding in other regions. It seems that the climate engineers need only to whip up a few artificially nucleated snow storms from their massive continent covering toxic clouds to convince most that all is well. The unquantifiable damage done by the ongoing global geoengineering to the climate and life on earth goes completely unnoticed by most and certainly completely unreported by main stream media.

http://www.geoengineeringwatch.org/engineered-snow-storms-begin-again/

Global “cooling”? .

Unprecedented Arctic Warming: Average Summer Temperatures in Last 100 Years May Be Warmest in 120,000 Years
http://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2013/10/131024102243.htm

Monday, October 28, 2013

Methane over Arctic Ocean is increasing

[ click on image to enlarge ]

Above image shows the Northern Hemisphere on October 26 – 27, 2013, a period of just over one day. Methane readings of 1950 ppb and higher show up in yellow. Peak reading on October 27, 2013, was 2369 ppb.

The image below, created by Harold Hensel with methanetracker, shows methane over the Arctic Ocean in three ranges, with the highest readings (1950 ppb and higher) in red.

[ click on image to enlarge ]

Harold adds: “Methane increased again in the Arctic Circle yesterday, 10/27/2013. So what were the headlines in the news? It wasn’t this which is more important than anything the media has to report. This is surreal to me.” - at Facebook

Related

- The Unfolding Methane Catastrophe
http://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2013/10/unfolding-methane-catastrophe.html

- Methane hydrates
http://methane-hydrates.blogspot.com/2013/04/methane-hydrates.html

- Myths about methane hydrates
http://methane-hydrates.blogspot.com/p/myths.html

- High Methane Readings continue over Depth of Arctic Ocean
http://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2013/10/high-methane-readings-continue-over-depth-of-arctic-ocean.html

- Abrupt Climate Change
http://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2013/10/abrupt-climate-change.html

- Just do NOT tell them the monster exists
http://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2013/10/just-do-not-tell-them-the-monster-exists.html

MORE>>

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ZenGardner.com

The post Mass Methane Release Accelerating appeared first on Just Wondering – Alternative News and Opinions.

[Tamohara dasa ADMIN.]

Unfolding Methane Catastrophe

The above image shows that, over a period of less than two days, huge amounts of methane show up over the depth of the Arctic Ocean, especially along the fault line that crosses the Arctic Ocean and extends into Siberia and further into the Sea of Okhotsk. On October 17, 2013, readings of up to 2351 ppb were recorded.

The above image shows that such high readings have occurred before over the past few months. This time, however, this high reading can be more clearly attributed to methane escaping from the depth of the Arctic Ocean, as also indicated by the image below that shows that at 469 mb (i.e. the altitude at which this high reading was recorded on the afternoon of October 17) methane was predominantly present at higher northern latitudes.

The methane that appears over the depth of the Arctic Ocean is likely have traveled a long path through the vertical water column before entering the atmosphere. Clearly, some of the methane must have oxidized in the ocean. Therefore, methane must be escaping from the seabed in amounts far higher than what is visible in the air.

Below follows some history regarding this unfolding methane catastrophe. Note that methane concentrations in the water are measured in nM, while methane concentrations in the atmosphere are typically measured in parts per billion (ppb).

There are vast amounts of methane in sediments underneath the Arctic Ocean.  Natalia Shakhova et al. (2010) estimate the accumulated potential for the East Siberian Arctic Shelf (ESAS) region alone (image on the right) as follows:

• organic carbon in permafrost of about 500 Gt
• about 1000 Gt in hydrate deposits
• about 700 Gt in free gas beneath the gas hydrate stability zone.⁸

Natalia Shakhova et al. (2008) consider release of up to 50 Gt of predicted amount of hydrate storage as highly possible for abrupt release at any time. By comparison, the total amount of methane currently in the atmosphere is about 5 Gt.³

The danger that volcanic and earthquake activity along the Gakkel Ridge could lead to destabilization and abrupt methane release into the atmosphere was highlighted by Light and Sorana back in 2002.¹

Measurements taken in September 2003 and September 2004 show that the surface layer of shelf water in the East-Siberian Sea and Laptev Sea was supersaturated up to 2500% relative to the present average atmospheric methane content of 1.85 ppm. Anomalously high concentrations (up to 154 nM or 4400% supersaturation) of dissolved methane in the bottom layer of shelf water suggest that the bottom layer is somehow affected by near-bottom sources. Considering the possible formation mechanisms of such plumes, we favor thermo-abrasion and the effects of shallow gas or gas hydrates release, conclude the authors of this study, published in 2005.²

In September 2005, extremely high concentrations of methane (up to 8 ppm) were measured in the atmospheric layer above the sea surface of the East Siberian Shelf, along with anomalously high concentrations of dissolved methane in the water column (up to 560 nM, or 12000% of super saturation).³

The authors conclude: "Since the area of geological disjunctives (fault zones, tectonically and seismically active areas) within the Siberian Arctic shelf composes not less than 1-2% of the total area and area of open taliks (area of melt through permafrost), acting as a pathway for methane escape within the Siberian Arctic shelf reaches up to 5-10% of the total area, we consider release of up to 50 Gt of predicted amount of hydrate storage as highly possible for abrupt release at any time. That may cause ∼12-times increase of modern atmospheric methane burden with consequent catastrophic greenhouse warming".³

In 2007, concentrations of dissolved methane in the water column reached a level of over 5141 nM at a location in the Laptev Sea.⁴

A study published in 2008 found volcanoes up to 2,000 m in diameter and a few hundred metres high at the bottom of the Arctic Ocean, at Gakkel Ridge.⁵

End September 2011, a cluster of methane plumes, over one km in diameter, appeared in the Laptev Sea, as shown on the image below, from a paper on the unfolding "Methane Catastrophe".⁶

In early October 2013, high atmospheric levels of methane started to appear over the depth of the Arctic Ocean.⁹  See image at top for most recent readings.


References

1. Arctic Methane Hydrates: A Potential Greenhouse Gas Hazard. - Light, M.P.R. and Solana, C. (2002)
http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2002EGSGA..27.4077L
For more details, see also
http://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/seismic-activity.html

2. The distribution of methane on the Siberian Arctic shelves: Implications for the marine methane cycle. - Natalia Shakhova, Igor Semiletov and Gleb Panteleev (2005)
http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1029/2005GL022751/abstract

3. Anomalies of methane in the atmosphere over the East Siberian shelf: Is there any sign of methane leakage from shallow shelf hydrates? - N. Shakhova, I. Semiletov, A. Salyuk and D. Kosmach (2008)
http://meetings.copernicus.org/www.cosis.net/abstracts/EGU2008/0152...

4. Siberian Sea Shelf Study, International Arctic Research Center, University of Alaska Fairbanks
http://research.iarc.uaf.edu/SSSS/data2010.php

5. Explosive volcanism on the ultraslow-spreading Gakkel ridge, Arctic Ocean. - Sohn RA et al. (2008)
http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/18580949

6. The Degradation of Submarine Permafrost and the Destruction of Hydrates on the Shelf of East Arctic Seas as a Potential Cause of the “Methane Catastrophe”: Some Results of Integrated Studies in 2011. - V. I. Sergienko et al., in Oceanology (Sept. 2012)
http://link.springer.com/article/10.1134/S102833

7. On carbon transport and fate in the East Siberian Arctic land–shelf–atmosphere system. - Semiletov et al. (2012)
http://iopscience.iop.org/1748-9326/7/1/015201

8. Methane release from the East Siberian Arctic Shelf and the Potential for Abrupt Climate Change. - Natalia Shakhova and Igor Semiletov (2010), Presentation at Symposium, November 30, 2010
http://symposium2010.serdp-estcp.org/content/download/8914/107496/v...

9. High Methane Readings continue over Depth of Arctic Ocean
http://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2013/10/high-methane-readings-conti...

[Tamohara dasa ADMIN.]

Sunday, October 6, 2013

Just do NOT tell them the monster exists

The Arctic Methane Monster

As discussed in a previous post, the IPCC appears to be acting as if there was a carbon budget to divide among countries, whereas in reality there is a huge carbon debt to our children, while the situation could become catastropic any time soon.

Indeed, carbon dioxide is not the only greenhouse gas and the Arctic methane monster is threatening to disrupt the cosy lifetyle of those who want to keep selling parts of such non-existing carbon budgets.

So, who do you think the IPCC has been listening to, to reach a conclusion after six years of analysis? Experts or snake oil sellers? The cartoon may give you a hint, but why don't you make up your own mind by going over the IPCC statements and comments below.

Abrupt Climate Change

The IPCC recently issued AR5 documents that included a discussion of Abrupt Climate Change.

from: IPCC AR5 Working Group 1 Technical Summary (final draft)

The IPCC gives some examples:

Yes, methane release from clathrates sounds scary.

If there is little consensus on the likelyhood, then surely some experts do believe it is likely. Yet, the IPCC somehow reaches the following conclusion, and does so with high confidence:

Unlikely? What was the basis for this IPCC conclusion? 

This seems like a conclusion that can only have been reached after a robust analysis of all the evidence. So, how did the IPCC reach this conclusion, given that it did so with such high confidence?

Let's have a look. The above conclusion is preceeded by this statement:

OK, that means clathrates will increasingly become destablilized. The IPCC then adds an argument why this would not result in abrupt climate change this century.

Sure, but that's just one rather insignificant negative feedback, compared to the many more significant positive feedbacks, such as melting causing isostatic rebound that can contribute to the occurrence of earthquakes and landslides, in turn triggering methane release. Yet, without even mentioning these positive feedbacks, the paragraph then jumps to the following conclusion:

If these initial estimates are not insignificant and if it's all rather difficult to formally assess, how then is it possible that the IPCC reached its end-conclusion with such high confidence? Moreover, was there any basis for these "initial estimates"? Perhaps there's more elsewhere in the IPCC documents. Here's another paragraph that preceeded the above.

All this expresses is low confidence in existing modeling and lack of understanding of the various processes. Again, how then is it possible that the IPCC reached its conclusion with such high confidence?

How much methane is currently released from hydrates?

On this, the IPCC says:

OK, so things could become scary. And sure, there are no large abrupt releases taking place now, but that doesn't mean there's not going to be any in future. In case of gradual processes, it makes sense to base projections on historic releases. In case of abrupt releases, however, current releases should not be the basis for reaching a conclusion with high confidence.

So, was the work of Dr. Natalia Shakhova perhaps used as the basis for these estimates? Read on!

How much methane is stored under the Arctic Ocean?

How much methane is present in sediments under the seabed of the Arctic Ocean, in the form of free gas and hydrates? On this, the IPCC says in FAQ6:

That doesn't seem to reflect the estimates of Dr. Natalia Shakhova. The total amount of methane currently in the atmosphere is about 5 Gt. Saying that more than 50 Gt of methane could be stored in hydrates the Arctic seems deceptive and appears to be seriously downplaying a very dangerous situation.

Natalia Shakhova et al. in 2010 estimated the accumulated potential for the East Siberian Arctic Shelf (ESAS) region alone (image on the right) as follows:

• organic carbon in permafrost of about 500 Gt
• about 1000 Gt in hydrate deposits
• about 700 Gt in free gas beneath the gas hydrate stability zone.

Back in 2008, Natalia Shakhova et al. considered release of up to 50 Gt of predicted amount of hydrate storage as highly possible for abrupt release at any time. Did the IPCC perhaps misread the figures, mistaking the part of the methane that is ready for abrupt release for the total amount of methane in the Arctic?

How long could it take for large amounts of methane to reach the atmosphere?

How long could it take for large amounts to reach the atmosphere? On this, the IPCC says in FAQ6, in the same and the next paragraph:

Events in which most, if not virtually all methane that escaped from the seabed did enter the atmosphere have been studied in 2002 and published in 2006, as reported at:
http://www.ia.ucsb.edu/pa/display.aspx?pkey=1482
and at:
http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1029/2005GB002668/abstract

Below, a screenshot from an interview of John Mason with Natalia Shakhova, published at:
http://www.skepticalscience.com/arctic-methane-outgassing-e-siberia...

In conclusion, Dr Natalia Shakhova also rejects the idea that methane release from hydrates always takes place gradually, over a long time. Especially in the Arctic, there's a huge danger of abrupt release, given the accelerated warming that takes place in the Arctic, given the huge amounts of methane stored in sediments in the form of free gas and methane, given the presence of a tectonic fault line, etc, etc.

Once released, methane won't get broken down easily in the Arctic Ocean, as this requires the presence of bacteria that can oxidize the methane, as well as free oxygen in the water. Once depleted, oxygen isn't quickly replenished in the Arctic Ocean. Lack of bacteria and depletion of oxygen in the waters of the Arctic Ocean could prevent oxidation of methane rising up in the waters, as described at:
http://methane-hydrates.blogspot.com/2012/03/large-areas-of-open-oc...

In the Arctic, low temperatures mean there are less bacteria that need more time to break down the methane. In other places, currents may bring bacteria back to the location of the methane plume repeatedly. In the Arctic, many currents are long, so once bacteria have flow away from the location of the plume, they could be driven out of the Arctic Ocean or may return only after a long time, i.e. too long to survive in Arctic waters which are cold and often ice-covered, so a lot of time little or no sunshine penetrates the waters.

In the Arctic, the danger is much larger that methane releases will overwhelm the capacity of bacteria to break it down in the water. In case of large abrupt releases in the Arctic, the danger is that much of the methane will reach the atmosphere unaffected and remain there for a long time, due to the Jet Stream and the low levels of hydroxyl in the Arctic atmosphere, as further described at:
http://methane-hydrates.blogspot.com/2013/04/methane-hydrates.html

BTW, how did all this methane manage to reach the atmosphere over the Arctic Ocean? 

Methane levels over the Arcic Ocean appear to be rising, as illustrated by the combination of images below, showing methane levels over five years (2009 on the left, to 2013 on the right), each time for the same period (January 21-31) - images by Dr. Leonid Yurganov.

[ Click on image to enlarge - from: Dramatic increase in methane in the Arctic in January 2013 ]

If the IPCC was right, how then was it possible methane levels to rise so sharply and abruptly. How was it possible for large amounts of methane to be present over the deep waters of the Arctic Ocean, as discussed at:
http://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2013/10/methane-over-deep-waters-of...

[ How did this methane get there? - click on image to enlarge - see also: Methane over deep waters of Arctic Ocean ]

There is a wealth of evidence from scientists such as Igor Semiletov and Natalia Shakhova who have - year after year - been taking measurements in the East Siberian Arctic Shelf, complete with first-hand reports that methane plumes have been detected.

"We've found continuous, powerful and impressive seeping structures more than 1,000 metres in diameter. In a very small area, less than 10,000 square miles, we have counted more than 100 fountains, or torch-like structures, bubbling through the water column and injected directly into the atmosphere from the seabed," Dr Semiletov said, "We carried out checks at about 115 stationary points and discovered methane fields of a fantastic scale - I think on a scale not seen before. Some of the plumes were a kilometre or more wide and the emissions went directly into the atmosphere - the concentration was a hundred times higher than normal."  -  Vast methane 'plumes' seen in Arctic ocean as sea ice retreats, by Steve Connor in The Independent, December 13, 2011.

The image below shows a cluster of methane plumes, over one km in diameter, that appeared in the Laptev Sea end September 2011. The image is part of a paper on the unfolding "Methane Catastrophe".

Of course, we all wished that we're wrong about this terrifying Arctic methane threat, but the precautionary principle demands a thorough investigation of observations that appear to be at odds with wishful thinking, especially when the stakes are so high. So, IPCC, where's the evidence?

Related

- Arctic Methane Monster
http://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2013/09/arctic-methane-monster.html

- Methane over deep waters of Arctic Ocean
http://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2013/10/methane-over-deep-waters-of...

- Methane hydrate myths
http://methane-hydrates.blogspot.com/p/myths.html

- Methane hydrates
http://methane-hydrates.blogspot.com/2013/04/methane-hydrates.html

- Methane release caused by earthquakes
http://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2013/09/methane-release-caused-by-e...

- Earthquake hits Laptev Sea
http://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2013/09/earthquake-hits-laptev-sea....

- North Hole
http://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2013/09/north-hole.html

- Seismic activity, by Malcolm Light and Sam Carana (2011)
Arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/seismic-activity.html

- Thermal expansion of the Earth's crust necessitates geoengineering (2011)
Arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/thermal-expansion.html

Posted by Sam Carana at 1:49 AM

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Labels: abrupt, AR5, Arctic, Arctic Ocean, change, clathrates, climate, hydrates, IPCC, methane, monster, release, seabed, sediments, Shakhova

6 comments:

1. 
   araizisOctober 6, 2013 at 2:57 AM

   Thanks Sam for an excellent posting.
   
   Although you haven't mentioned it here, the IPCC has for some reason chosen to overlook the massive albedo changes taking place, which you have discussed at length in previous blogs. Any theories as to why that might be?
   
   The images by Dr Leonid Yurganov are compelling enough already, one can only imagine what they will look like when the ice has gone completely.
   
   

   Reply
   Replies
2. 
   Sam CaranaOctober 6, 2013 at 2:33 PM

   Yes, albedo changes constitute a rapidly growing positive feedback, and there are many further positive feedbacks, as described in posts such as Diagram of Doom. Unfortunately, there appear to be little or no negative feedbacks. Observations indicate that the Arctic sea ice will collapse soon and things are looking to get a lot worse within years, rather than within decades. As said, it may be wishful thinking that leads some to downplay the size and time scale of the threat, but we should demand the IPCC to do a more thorough analysis.

3. Reply
4. 
   jamieOctober 6, 2013 at 6:56 AM

   First, with so many outright lies and myths promulgated by the 'Powers that be' it would be shear folly to bend an ear in their direction; I don't think many people are paying attention to the "IPCC", which is an institution created by 'tpb', at this point.
   
   You have highlighted some very irrational statements, made by the IPCC, that illustrates their complete fraud: "It is very unlikely that methane from clathrates will undergo catastrophic release during the 21st century ( high confidence)."
   
   Having said this, though, it is evident that even the science of those that contribute to this blog suffer equally from either the same cognitive dissonance that the IPCC panel members suffer from, or, from a very real, yet, undiscovered dis ease called compartmentalization. ( I would hate to think that these reports are intentional deceits ).
   There are a plethora of positive feedbacks contributing to the melting in the Arctic yet these feedbacks are as ignored as the IPCC's "methane monster" by arctic-news contributors. Why?
   
   My question is genuine and not rhetorical. I do hope that someone, who possesses an ounce of humility, will take the time to come down from their "sacred mountain" to answer this question to a 'layperson'.
   
   If you want the world to start listening to your pleas you must do in kind.
   
   
   
   
   
   
   

   Reply
   Replies
5. 
   Sam CaranaOctober 6, 2013 at 3:36 PM

   Not sure what you mean, Jamie. Contributors to the Arctic-news blog will typically take great effort not to ignore or downplay positive feedbacks. Could you rephrase your question?

6. Reply
7. 
   witsendnjOctober 6, 2013 at 7:11 AM

   Whoa! Tropical and boreal forest dieback?? That's already well underway! Just go outside and LOOK at any random tree and you will see evidence of decline, as sure as ice is melting in the Arctic.

   Reply
8. 
   Dale LananOctober 7, 2013 at 6:49 AM

   The effect if not deliberate purpose of the UN IPCC document for policy makers is to keep lie alive..
   The big lie that we can indeed keep living beyond our means and that of Earth. Earth's ecosystems.
   Dwelling now on detail won't save us or matter at all. Methane emissions from naturally sequestered stocks held in clathrated water ice form similar to a magical foam that's pressure and temp sensitive -they are starting to self release and that increase is accelerating non linearly as anomaly rise shows -But what of facts to a consensus process, lone in deciding fate of Life.. Evil in heart of Godl oops SP.. Spell check that Gole.. Oops again got to get it right;; Gole.. -Gold, That is what God might somehow try to get across to a group of Apes with vision of Granier..

   Reply