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Ok just to get to the major issue, when 1 out of 4 people are unemployed for a long time, they have to rely on others to survive. Either housing with relatives (who often have limited patience or none) or from the government assistance. Effectively the governments end up being the last resort, and since government budget crises seem to accompany major economic depressions, people end up on the streets…
Europe right now
In the EU, first Greece, then Spain and eventually Italy and have started to reach this critical number of 25% unemployment. Evidently this critical level leads to depressions and catastrophe. The basic reason is probably that the average working family cannot sustain a budget deficit of 25% for long. This is not a surprise considering that during good times, the savings rate of 8% a year is not enough to cover this excess.
Mathematically you could look at economies like a big battery, where there is a certain drain on power, but if not enough power is charged each day that battery dies. Well, the battery of the world economy is just about dead.
Or, you could look at this from a long term budgetary standpoint, whether for an entire nation or a household. You might be able to charge your financial accounts with some savings when things are ok for a bit, but then if things go bad you have to rely on credit (another battery). That only lasts so long, and of course if you miss payments, your interest rates go up. In effect that battery is dead.
In the EU, both Spain and Greece are suffering 24% unemployment. In the US the real unemployment rate is not 8 percent, it’s more like 15 to 20. But not to digress on how the US is underestimating these figures…
The EU is now facing a breakdown because both Greece and Spain are now at the critical level of 24% unemployment, and if you add Italy, which is headed there, and add youth unemployment (under 25) of 50% you realize their economies are in collapse.
Nowhere to go and Germany won’t go there
If the US heads there the entire world will have nowhere to go. The US is probably headed to over 25% unemployment as well. Maybe you don’t think so. Then you are lucky. In the US recent college grads in the last two years are either unemployed or underemployed working at a minimum wage job. That percent is 50%. Hmmmm.
We ARE in a depression here in the US as well. There is a depression in the S EU, in Greece, Spain and now Italy soon. Their numbers of unemployed are similar to the unemployment numbers there and in the US in the Great depression of the 1930s after the 1929 stock crash. Germany cannot bail out the EU alone either.
Another world stock crash on the horizon
Another 1929 style stock crash is on the horizon. Possibly this year or next. With the seriously disastrous US finances being the last bastion of credit worldwide, with the US credit card in danger of being maxed out (for example the US is buying hundreds of billions of just mortgage bonds alone each year) and the EU just about in tatters over their faltering economic union, the prospects of another major financial chaos like Lehman in 2008 are imminent.
The Euro is facing a possible crash because of this. The USD is rallying. Gold is staying flat, but holding, while most everything else is either dropping or about to crash.
The commodity countries are going to face pressures in their markets, and while the financial world tries to hold together, gold will be looked at to moderate the deterioration of the various national currencies. We forecast about 7 months ago the Euro was headed to 1.15 USD. Ultimately the Euro is headed for a major disaster and probably breakdown of the EU financial zone.
But the unemployment levels of 25% being a key measure, and the US is nearing that even though it’s being understated.. and the US being one of the last real credit cards out there, means time is short. I would imagine that Germany in the EU will blink and offer a few more hundred billion Euros, but even so this appears to only buy us all a few more months. Central banks cannot carry entire economies when 1 out of 4 people are unemployed for the long term. A major catastrophe is just around the corner.
Chris Laird
Prudent Squirrel
Data and Statistics for these countries : Germany | Greece | Italy | Spain | All
Gold and Silver Prices for these countries : Germany | Greece | Italy | Spain | All
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Chris Laird
Chris Laird has been an Oracle systems engineer, database administrator, and math teacher. He has a BS in mathematics from UCLA and is a certified Oracle database administrator. He has been an avid follower of financial news since childhood. His father is Jere Laird, former business editor of KNX news AM 1070, Los Angeles (ret). He has grown up immersed in financial news. His Grandmother was Alice Widener, publisher of USA magazine in the 60?s to 80?s, a newsletter that covered many of the topics you find today at the preeminent gold sites. Chris is the publisher of the Prudent Squirrel newsletter, an economic and gold commentary.
n his purport to Caitanya-caritamrta Adi 17.141, Srila Prabhupada further states:
"In the present day also, people all over the world may join together in the Krsna consciousness movement and protest against the present degraded governments of the world's godless societies, which are based on all kinds of sinful activities. Srimad-Bhagavatam states that in the Age of Kali, thieves, rogues and fourth-class people who have neither education nor culture capture the seats of governments to exploit the citizens. This is a symptom of Kali-yuga that has already appeared. People cannot feel secure about their lives and property, yet the so-called governments continue, and government ministers get fat salaries, although they are unable to do anything good for society. The only remedy for such conditions is to enhance the sankirtana movement under the banner of Krsna consciousness and protest against the sinful activities of all the world's governments.
The Krsna consciousness movement is not a sentimental religious movement; it is a movement for the reformation of all the anomalies of human society. If people take to it seriously, discharging this duty scientifically, as ordered by Sri Caitanya Mahaprabhu, the world will see peace and prosperity instead of being confused and hopeless under useless governments. There are always rogues and thieves in human society, and as soon as a weak government is unable to execute its duties, these rogues and thieves come out to do their business. Thus the entire society becomes a hell unfit for gentlemen to live in. There is an immediate need for a good government -- a government by the people, with Krsna consciousness. Unless the masses of people become Krsna conscious, they cannot be good men. The Krsna consciousness movement that Sri Caitanya Mahaprabhu started by chanting the Hare Krsna maha-mantra still has its potency. Therefore people should understand it seriously and scientifically and spread it all over the world."